رابطۀ بین مداخلات غیردارویی دولت طی دورۀ شیوع ویروس کووید-19 با بازار سهام ایران: نقش واکسیناسیون عمومی | ||
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران | ||
مقاله 6، دوره 13، شماره 50، مرداد 1403، صفحه 169-199 اصل مقاله (1.63 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22084/aes.2024.28664.3655 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
مهدیه رضاقلی زاده* 1؛ حسین جعفری2؛ مرتضی عبدالحسینی3 | ||
1دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران. | ||
2دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران. | ||
3کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ مهندسی پیشرفت، دانشگاه علم و صنعت، تهران، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
درپی شیوع ویروس کووید-19 در اواخر سال 2019م. دولتها برای مقابله با گسترش روزافزون این ویروس از یکسری سیاستهای سختگیرانه و مداخلات غیردارویی (NPI) نظیر فاصلهگذاری اجتماعی و قرنطینههای اجباری استفاده نموده و لذا روند معاملات بازارهای جهانی، ازجمله بازار سهام، بهشدت تحتتأثیر قرار گرفت. در ادامه، شروع واکسیناسیون عمومی، صنایع و گروههای مختلف را تحتتأثیر قرار داد و منجر به ایجاد تغییراتی در معاملات بازار سهام کشورها، ازجمله بورس اوراق بهادار تهران گردید. پژوهش حاضر با بهکارگیری الگوی غیرخطی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم (STR) و دادههای روزانه طی دورۀ زمانی همهگیری کووید- 19 (30 بهمن 1398 تا 10 دی 1401) به بررسی نقش واکسیناسیون عمومی در رابطۀ بین سیاستهای مداخلهگرانۀ دولت با بازار سهام کشور ایران میپردازد. در پژوهش حاضر با تکیهبر آزمونهای کشف رفتار غیرخطی، وجود رابطۀ غیرخطی بین مداخلات دولت و شاخص بازار سهام تأیید شد، متغیر تعداد افراد واکسینهشده بهعنوان متغیر انتقال مناسب انتخاب گردید و مدل غیرخطی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم با تابع انتقال لاجستیک دو رژیمی با یکبار انتقال (LSTR1) بهعنوان الگوی پیشنهادی برای این رابطه درنظر گرفته شد. نتایج حاصل از برآورد الگوی پژوهش نشان میدهد که افزایش اقدامات سختگیرانۀ دولت در قالب یک ساختار دو رژیمی با سطح آستانهای 20857 تعداد افراد واکسینهشده در رژیم اول (یعنی زمانیکه تعداد افراد واکسینهشده کمتر از مقدار آستانهای خود (20857) است) بر شاخص بازار سهام اثر مثبت و معنادار داشته است، اما با عبور از سطح آستانه و وارد شدن به رژیم دوم (یعنی زمانیکه تعداد افراد واکسینهشده بیشتر از مقدار آستانهای خود (20857) است) متغیر یاد شده بر شاخص بازار سهام تأثیر منفی و معناداری داشته است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
بازار سهام؛ شاخص سختگیری؛ کووید-19؛ مدل غیرخطی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم (STR) | ||
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