برآورد شاخص توهّم مالی در استان‌های ایران: رویکرد مدل تحلیل شاخصچندگانه–عللچندگانه (MIMIC) | ||
| فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران | ||
| دوره 11، شماره 43، آذر 1401، صفحه 173-208 اصل مقاله (1.77 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22084/aes.2022.25895.3420 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| محمدعلی متفکرآزاد1؛ ناهید عاشوری2؛ زهرا کریمی تکانلو* 3؛ جعفر حقیقت4 | ||
| 1استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، گرایش منابع و محیط زیست (گرایش دوم بخش عمومی)، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. | ||
| 3دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. | ||
| 4استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف مطالعۀ حاضر برآورد شاخص توهّم مالی با استفاده از مدل معادلات ساختاری[1] از نوع تحلیل شاخصچندگانه-عللچندگانه[2]، بهکمک دادههای طولی، طی دورۀ زمانی 1380 تا 1399، برای 31 استان کشور ایران میباشد. نتایج حاصل از برآورد شاخص توهّم مالی حاکیاست مهم‌ترین علل توهّم مالی، هزینههای آموزشی و بار مالیاتی با ضریب منفی و نرخ اشتغال با ضریب مثبت (همگی از لحاظ آماری معنادار) و مهم‌ترین شاخصهای توهّم مالی شامل: پیچیدگی سیستم مالیاتی با ضریب منفی و متغیرهای کسری بودجه، نرخ تورم، نسبت مالیات غیرمستقیم و درآمد سرانۀ نفتی با ضرایب مثبت (همگی ازلحاظ آماری معنادار) میباشند. هم‌چنین، نتایج حاصل از برآورد شاخص توهّم مالی حاکیاست درمیان استانها، کمترین مقدار میانگین این شاخص به استان خراسان شمالی و بیشترین مقدار آن به استان خوزستان و نیز در سطح کشور کمترین مقدار به سالهای 1380 و 1381 و بیشترین آن به سال 1399 تعلق دارد؛ بنابراین، شاخص توهّم مالی میتواند با تعیین میزان تودۀ توهّم مالی در تصورات عمومی، سیاستگذاری عمومی را آگاه کند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| توهّم مالی؛ مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری؛ تحلیل شاخصچندگانه-عللچندگانه؛ استان | ||
| مراجع | ||
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